Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 23.330132 25.627397 28.209501 31.361423 35.154422 39.638984 45.449070
2025-01-26 19.976605 22.922351 26.502092 31.293330 37.745230 46.484436 59.951834
2025-02-02 17.838110 21.133290 25.380715 31.502878 40.593806 54.623088 80.781778
2025-02-09 16.339537 19.847886 24.588689 31.862790 43.660688 64.380207 112.487076
2025-02-16 15.122808 18.729869 23.789675 31.964705 46.290363 74.773017 159.618331
2025-02-23 14.035066 17.637341 22.836246 31.584725 47.930056 84.271599 226.166830
2025-03-02 13.243902 16.867262 22.237091 31.632909 50.355159 97.380335 363.698393
2025-03-09 12.513731 16.106801 21.545863 31.372752 52.064121 110.282896 637.446690
2025-03-16 11.880499 15.430389 20.903150 31.073959 53.596792 124.508708 1431.871379
2025-03-23 11.328265 14.829566 20.314952 30.770880 55.035800 140.587895 7747.205478
2025-03-30 10.867234 14.332718 19.846063 30.617594 56.820968 161.386407 NaN
2025-04-06 10.371620 13.747671 19.174650 29.957829 57.074253 175.977177 NaN
2025-04-13 10.231586 13.720137 19.465300 31.349344 63.800945 249.469473 NaN
2025-04-20 9.847274 13.275347 18.984641 31.021884 65.260800 293.629923 NaN
2025-04-27 9.553282 12.959409 18.707471 31.105326 68.188049 375.122375 NaN
2025-05-04 9.310798 12.712764 18.533920 31.398457 72.084504 520.951498 NaN
2025-05-11 9.059550 12.436504 18.282078 31.469767 75.277205 737.415941 NaN
2025-05-18 8.773473 12.086693 17.866130 31.086544 76.520894 975.803596 NaN
2025-05-25 8.556682 11.843089 17.633961 31.127258 79.710392 1640.025316 NaN
2025-06-01 8.322127 11.557820 17.301865 30.871143 81.503349 2858.466523 NaN
2025-06-08 8.099166 11.282540 16.971521 30.578965 83.064336 6440.953356 NaN
2025-06-15 7.889838 11.021976 16.654117 30.283307 84.547076 39118.124239 NaN
2025-06-22 7.707866 10.801380 16.402354 30.133781 86.829713 NaN NaN